AI & Law: Judges Susceptible To Gambler’s Fallacy And AI Predicting Judicial Outcomes

AI predicting judicial outcomes amid human judges and gambler’s fallacy

by Dr. Lance B. Eliot

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Key briefing points about this article:

• A simple flipping of a coin brings up some key insights about human judgment
• For a truly balanced coin, we know that there are even chances of heads or tails
• If a series of flips showcases a clump of heads or tails, we get concerned
• Turns out that court judges fall into the same trap, known as the gambler’s fallacy
• AI is being used to spot these failings, though do not assume that AI cures them

Introduction

I am going to undertake a series of coin flips and will assure you beforehand that the flipping and the coin are assuredly balanced and fair. Take my word for it.

The coin is not weighted to prefer one side or the other. There is a truly equal chance of the coin landing as heads versus tails. Furthermore, assume that the actual flipping of the coin is…